There are danger signs pointing to the real possibility of a double dip recession—a short “recovery” followed by another recession. One of the most important is the terrible labor market conditions (little job creation and short hours and low pay for those with jobs). Unfortunately, while public employment had helped to offset the collapse in private hiring, a crisis in state government financing is forcing major cutbacks in the public sector as well.
Facing huge budget deficits, states are laying off growing numbers of workers and furloughing even more. This not only makes it difficult for people to get needed services, it also threatens to undermine any (stimulus driven) recovery impulses—you know those famous green shoots.
As the Wall Street Journal reports:
The furloughs, which basically act as salary cuts for state workers, are the latest response to plunges in tax revenue because of the recession. State legislatures have struggled to cover shortfalls that have ballooned to $168 billion, or 24% of their general-fund budgets, for the current fiscal year, which for most began July 1, according to a report released Thursday by the left-leaning Center on Budget Policy Priorities.
State governments have cut some 33,000 jobs over the last year with more to come. Furloughs, where workers are told to stay home for several days a month without pay—resulting in significant wage cuts—are growing even faster. Hundreds of thousands of workers are currently affected, more than 200,000 in California alone. Slashing the public sector may help balance the budget in the short run, but such a strategy only intensifies our long term economic and social problems.
The chart below (taken from the above cited WSJ story) highlights the size of the problem.